Jul 172013
 

Updated: The list has been updated to a point where players with only one score-able year (except last year’s rookies) has been eliminated. 

 

With The Gridiron Chefs approaching it s 4th season . Very large. I’ve decided to attempt to create a stat that would allow people to properly compare players at the same position over a large period of time. Roger Staubach vs Steve Young, Peyton Manning vs Dan Marino. There are several problems that are encountered when attempting this with raw data or raw stats namely the major differences in rules, training, etc. between the two eras of football. So to remedy this we have to make the comparison between players that are under the same conditions namely, the other QBs of their era. But, if I am comparing a QB to the players to other QBs playing at the same time how do I make the jump to another generation without encountering the same problems? Enter the dominance rating (DR). The Dominance Rating (or so I’ve code named it until I can come up with another, better, name) starts with a few assumptions.

1. Average QB is average – Regardless of if it is 1974 or 2007 a QB who has the average number of yards, TDs, comp%, and INTs is average for that season.

2. Its better for the team if a player sucks hard for one season and then leaves as oppose to kinda sucking for 5 years.

3. All average is created equal.

When we establish the fact that an average QB is average regardless of the era it gives a baseline for comparison. How much better than average has Roger Staubach been for his career? ok now how much better than average has Steve Young been during his career. Great now we have our answer. “But, Broth, how do we quantify exactly how much better than average one QB is than another?” you may ask well let me tell you.

First, we must start by determining exactly what stats we want to use. I decided to use the statistics that I find most important.

comp% – Accuracy is very important for a QB. If you aren’t completing passes you aren’t winning games.

yds/G – I had to go with yds/G as oppose to pure yards because of the fact that prior to 1978 the NFL had a 14 game season and if I wanted to go further back there was a point where the NFL had a 12 game season as well. It also prevents players from being overly penalized for injuries.

TD/G – You obviously want your QB to score and the per game part is already explained.

INT/G – Picks are actually a negative statistic thus point values are calculated differently. But obviously turning the ball over in football is a bad thing.

Taking these statistics I compiled a list of every starter for that season (starter = player who started in half or more of the games in a given season.) I took these four statistics and found an average for each then generated a score for each stat for each starter.
score = (stat/avg)-1

This means that an average score is zero a below average score is negative and an above average score is positive which works out rather well when we find a total career DR.

For interceptions the formula for the score had to be changed.

scoreINT/G = [-(INT/G)/avg]+1

Even with this change average score = 0.

A dominance rating for the season would be…

DR(season)= scoreINT + scoreYPG + scoreTDPG + scoreCP

then to find the DR for a players career it would just be the summation of the DR of every season that you were the starter for half or more of the season. If you weren’t the starter for that amount of games then your DR for that season is zero.

Now for the moment you have been waiting for the top 231 greatest passers since the merger.

 

 

Rk
Player
Team
Year
Career DR
Scored Years in the League
1 Dan Marino MIA 1989 12.6553810175247 16
2 Peyton Manning IND 1998 11.8563023397887 14
3 Joe Montana SF 1989 10.4361255880858 13
4 Tom Brady NE 2004 10.4090671366628 11
5 Fran Tarkenton NYG 1970 9.50176653841661 9
6 Brett Favre GB 1998 9.36512241512131 19
7 Steve Young SF 1989 8.85026428518916 10
8 Roger Staubach DAL 1970 8.09968258874977 9
9 Ken Anderson CIN 1971 7.39513063000804 14
10 Warren Moon HOU 1989 6.54874708728486 15
11 Drew Brees SD 2002 6.44425677349197 11
12 Aaron Rodgers GB 2010 6.1872561027504 5
13 Dan Fouts SD 1973 5.87418138016868 14
14 Bob Griese MIA 1970 5.78389790629172 9
15 Jim Kelly BUF 1989 5.68446182030121 11
16 Roman Gabriel LA 1970 4.85470995333312 6
17 Billy Kilmer NO 1970 4.73103964141183 8
18 Donovan McNabb WAS 2010 4.24470261712969 12
19 Randall Cunningham PHI 1989 4.11272062201426 8
20 Kurt Warner NYG 2004 3.89059341189271 8
21 Philip Rivers SD 2012 3.75169458389078 7
22 Ken Stabler OAK 1973 3.67924317453144 11
23 Drew Bledsoe NE 1998 3.65798534694441 12
24 Tony Romo DAL 2012 3.6168093359098 6
25 Jim Hart STL 1970 3.51669761085017 11
26 Bert Jones BAL 1973 3.07616605237938 7
27 Neil Lomax PHO 1988 2.87355269886609 8
28 John Elway DEN 1989 2.85668297558709 16
29 Jeff Garcia CLE 2004 2.83283654716833 9
30 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2008 2.77137984963016 9
31 Trent Green KC 2006 2.69823232855764 8
32 Rich Gannon KC 1998 2.59896213031897 8
33 Jim Everett RAM 1989 2.51051852167531 10
34 Danny White DAL 1987 2.36475721472917 8
35 Matt Schaub HOU 2012 2.1923349133173 6
36 Carson Palmer CIN 2010 2.17935610113905 8
37 Bernie Kosar CLE 1989 2.17678901907239 7
38 Brad Johnson MIN 1997 2.10810913607409 9
39 Matt Ryan ATL 2009 2.03296706892548 5
40 Greg Landry DET 1970 2.02642447742343 7
41 Terry Bradshaw PIT 1970 1.9884879103374 13
42 Mark Brunell JAC 1998 1.96110108922698 11
43 Ron Jaworski PHI 1977 1.91107809953205 10
44 Sonny Jurgensen WAS 1970 1.90705177120984 3
45 Craig Morton DAL 1970 1.9027175145428 11
46 Daunte Culpepper MIN 2001 1.86317299844715 5
47 Bobby Hebert NO 1989 1.85005201880391 7
48 Ken O’Brien NYJ 1989 1.82588181543968 8
49 Phil Simms NYG 1979 1.80706253152084 11
50 Chris Miller ATL 1989 1.74597901764399 7
51 Bob Berry ATL 1970 1.64524532502265 3
52 John Brodie SF 1970 1.60335299495269 3
53 Brian Griese DEN 2002 1.53819739938405 5
54 Brian Sipe CLE 1974 1.48819074679396 9
55 Steve Beuerlein RAI 1989 1.48713269096493 7
56 Steve Bartkowski ATL 1975 1.46046583940251 9
57 Tommy Kramer MIN 1979 1.43034912316232 8
58 Bill Munson DET 1970 1.42397938749466 3
59 Jeff George OAK 1997 1.32035666793767 8
60 Boomer Esiason CIN 1989 1.247921000731 12
61 Virgil Carter CIN 1970 1.22352662839468 2
62 Joe Theismann WAS 1976 1.20594507791743 10
63 Steve McNair TEN 1998 1.08444614771063 11
64 Tony Eason NE 1986 0.99810278826187 3
65 Chad Pennington NYJ 2007 0.996242843303772 6
66 John Hadl SD 1970 0.975677871944853 7
67 Eli Manning NYG 2010 0.923898376321523 8
68 Mark Rypien WAS 1989 0.83624499629017 7
69 Daryle Lamonica OAK 1970 0.825354005998462 4
70 Len Dawson KC 1970 0.736149734839709 6
71 Doug Williams TB 1978 0.646826826908417 7
72 Neil O’Donnell CIN 1998 0.641323129446808 9
73 Steve Bono KC 1995 0.591040589387686 3
74 Robert Griffin III WAS 2012 0.567719373077059 1
75 James Harris BUF 1971 0.566418233762385 5
76 Bill Nelsen CLE 1970 0.550750517836433 2
77 Joe Flacco BAL 2011 0.549137026221721 5
78 Al Woodall NYJ 1970 0.533328521856071 2
79 Erik Kramer CHI 1997 0.519728651421382 4
80 Scott Mitchell DET 1996 0.512472961127043 5
81 Bill Kenney KC 1987 0.511256079865993 7
82 Marc Bulger STL 2008 0.511032030816735 7
83 David Garrard JAC 2008 0.430444752592902 5
84 Craig Erickson TB 1993 0.381262077179651 2
85 Jeff Hostetler OAK 1995 0.335102647492318 6
86 Pat Haden LA 1976 0.332182977117573 5
87 Russell Wilson SEA 2012 0.327737509542893 1
88 Matt Hasselbeck SEA 2001 0.296792396118395 11
89 Joe Ferguson BUF 1973 0.291066733407083 12
90 Shane Matthews WAS 2002 0.258368994247836 2
91 Jeff Blake CIN 1997 0.207632819507299 8
92 Jeff Kemp SF 1986 0.042511734845211 2
93 Shaun Hill SF 2008 0.03398270482916 2
94 Alex Smith SF 2010 -0.00312402108126 5
95 Ty Detmer PHI 1996 -0.035099562566616 2
96 Norm Snead PHI 1970 -0.041215041290813 4
97 Charlie Batch DET 1998 -0.050785417142063 4
98 Andy Dalton CIN 2012 -0.069422923986935 2
99 Damon Huard KC 2007 -0.072040552407553 3
100 Colin Kaepernick SF 2012 -0.089544472097636 1
101 Charley Johnson HOU 1970 -0.101368844143147 6
102 Dave Krieg SEA 1989 -0.120475085946913 14
103 Matthew Stafford DET 2012 -0.126799598370401 3
104 Cam Newton CAR 2012 -0.174153974183945 2
105 Troy Aikman DAL 1989 -0.20001704347313 12
106 Rob Johnson BUF 2000 -0.202028820106423 2
107 Andrew Luck IND 2012 -0.223033558102284 1
108 Jason Campbell WAS 2007 -0.227230534837752 4
109 Doug Flutie NE 1988 -0.262373895784796 5
110 Tommy Maddox PIT 2003 -0.28022453358212 2
111 Jim Miller CHI 2002 -0.28472785036258 2
112 Vince Ferragamo LA 1979 -0.312444561324691 4
113 Byron Leftwich JAC 2003 -0.325855042390635 3
114 Patrick Ramsey WAS 2004 -0.372546302033818 3
115 Earl Morrall BAL 1970 -0.386258293537275 3
116 Kyle Orton CHI 2008 -0.388190286215712 4
117 Jim McMahon SD 1989 -0.389929849321771 8
118 Aaron Brooks NO 2005 -0.393100770603626 7
119 Edd Hargett NO 1970 -0.41165673943753 2
120 Vinny Testaverde TB 1989 -0.446765032925438 14
121 Jay Cutler CHI 2012 -0.473502335588606 6
122 Steve DeBerg SF 1978 -0.510577331397484 12
123 Wade Wilson MIN 1989 -0.539005596961041 7
124 Elvis Grbac KC 1997 -0.54360738400556 6
125 Stan Humphries SD 1996 -0.549097093171251 6
126 Tim Tebow DEN 2011 -0.552464946004596 1
127 Jim Zorn SEA 1976 -0.560940296056863 8
128 Kelly Holcomb BUF 2005 -0.615358127462733 2
129 Steve Grogan NE 1975 -0.642288716792707 10
130 Brandon Weeden CLE 2012 -0.749570631566197 1
131 Sam Bradford STL 2010 -0.758738806565438 3
132 Jim Plunkett NE 1971 -0.781236393404216 12
133 Don Strock MIA 1978 -0.78597219664802 2
134 Jake Delhomme CAR 2008 -0.795784889587008 6
135 Johnny Unitas BAL 1970 -0.80098147272648 3
136 Mike Livingston KC 1973 -0.807802354392152 6
137 Gary Hogeboom PHO 1989 -0.852575270007156 3
138 Bubby Brister PIT 1989 -0.874399682823162 5
139 Sean Salisbury MIN 1992 -0.884612438476558 2
140 Scott Brunner NYG 1983 -0.893902223153826 2
141 Steve Pelluer DAL 1988 -0.895312328118956 2
142 Jack Thompson TB 1983 -0.900027470526203 2
143 Joe Namath NYJ 1972 -0.910903315147441 4
144 Michael Vick ATL 2005 -0.966880218036518 7
145 Don Majkowski GB 1989 -0.980688898883701 4
146 Dan Orlovsky IND 2011 -0.994469414174082 2
147 Danny Kanell NYG 1997 -1.00762976121452 2
148 Steve Spurrier SF 1972 -1.00797085717249 4
149 Pete Liske DEN 1970 -1.01714162255548 3
150 Jon Kitna CIN 2001 -1.02015903694558 8
151 Cade McNown CHI 2000 -1.03125856331501 2
152 Todd Blackledge KC 1986 -1.06187387815552 2
153 Dennis Shaw BUF 1970 -1.06277837130361 3
154 Christian Ponder MIN 2012 -1.07993865747599 2
155 Steve Fuller KC 1979 -1.1065999735333 2
156 Gary Danielson DET 1977 -1.13061452795602 5
157 David Archer ATL 1986 -1.13081335748834 2
158 Blaine Gabbert JAC 2012 -1.13281817450376 2
159 Kent Graham NYG 1998 -1.16551150489849 4
160 Tarvaris Jackson SEA 2011 -1.16709419642299 2
161 Colt McCoy CLE 2011 -1.17167061518321 2
162 Archie Manning NO 1971 -1.24589573210369 11
163 Dave Wilson NO 1986 -1.24816963975158 2
164 Norris Weese DEN 1978 -1.26734396144778 2
165 Steve Walsh DAL 1989 -1.26978074910889 4
166 Doug Pederson CLE 2000 -1.27150940693611 2
167 John Reaves PHI 1972 -1.28476956089804 2
168 Mike Boryla PHI 1975 -1.31780187488109 2
169 J.P. Losman BUF 2007 -1.32403065513796 3
170 Gary Cuozzo MIN 1970 -1.36531312619018 3
171 Paul McDonald CLE 1984 -1.36984218205488 2
172 Derek Anderson CLE 2008 -1.38655273547834 3
173 Matt Cassel KC 2009 -1.38681630110514 5
174 Gus Frerotte WAS 1997 -1.441865911573 7
175 Marty Domres BAL 1972 -1.45766395726079 3
176 Dave Brown NYG 1995 -1.49606918166045 3
177 Bob Gagliano DET 1989 -1.49954365791081 2
178 Tim Couch CLE 2001 -1.55479765484449 4
179 Jay Fiedler MIA 2003 -1.55761221874222 5
180 Tony Banks STL 1998 -1.57265099413117 6
181 Josh Freeman TB 2011 -1.5947994513545 4
182 Joe Pisarcik NYG 1977 -1.59884824679887 2
183 Eric Hipple DET 1986 -1.60801109440683 4
184 Trent Edwards BUF 2007 -1.60858179807623 3
185 Bob Lee MIN 1971 -1.66362113332912 3
186 Kerry Collins CAR 1997 -1.68717534686736 12
187 JaMarcus Russell OAK 2008 -1.82098672313061 2
188 David Klingler CIN 1993 -1.82815357718002 2
189 Rex Grossman WAS 2011 -1.8345086031204 3
190 Steve Ramsey DEN 1971 -1.8680036721158 4
191 Vince Young TEN 2006 -1.91486719640399 3
192 Chad Henne JAC 2012 -1.94512727826207 3
193 David Whitehurst GB 1977 -1.96586794730397 3
194 Dan Pastorini HOU 1971 -1.98657578685439 9
195 Brady Quinn CLE 2009 -2.03361800135341 2
196 Mike Pagel IND 1985 -2.07407165171222 4
197 Tom Tupa PHO 1989 -2.12634738514499 2
198 Richard Todd NYJ 1976 -2.22153550724994 8
199 Jack Trudeau IND 1989 -2.22398285176888 4
200 Ryan Fitzpatrick CIN 2008 -2.24571630273451 5
201 Heath Shuler WAS 1994 -2.29111307960286 2
202 Josh McCown OAK 2007 -2.32706937900594 3
203 Chris Chandler IND 1988 -2.34086946747356 12
204 Bob Avellini CHI 1975 -2.34116096755045 4
205 Lynn Dickey HOU 1973 -2.36435528899562 10
206 Jerry Tagge GB 1973 -2.37413437841519 2
207 Vince Evans CHI 1981 -2.38885526740748 3
208 David Carr HOU 2003 -2.43525364927165 5
209 Randy Wright GB 1988 -2.48331480915819 3
210 Rodney Peete DET 1989 -2.51139450215198 7
211 David Woodley PIT 1985 -2.57911320209657 4
212 Jake Plummer ARI 1998 -2.61016724958907 10
213 Craig Whelihan SD 1997 -2.80308509916345 2
214 Billy Joe Tolliver HOU 1994 -2.80789259241215 3
215 Mark Sanchez NYJ 2012 -2.81685467688346 4
216 Bobby Douglass CHI 1971 -2.86685627328498 4
217 Mike Phipps CLE 1972 -2.88687466196456 5
218 John Friesz WAS 1994 -2.985456029066 4
219 Mike Tomczak CHI 1989 -2.99128266296719 6
220 Scott Hunter GB 1971 -3.0197176611242 5
221 Kyle Boller BAL 2003 -3.02257783798963 4
222 Ryan Leaf SD 2000 -3.11688017551104 2
223 Kordell Stewart PIT 1998 -3.12248695472762 6
224 Mark Malone SD 1988 -3.20688044855683 5
225 Trent Dilfer TB 1998 -3.22959443155439 7
226 Jay Schroeder RAI 1989 -3.26438541044016 9
227 Jim Harbaugh CHI 1989 -3.32682987089619 11
228 Joey Harrington DET 2003 -3.64638749766494 6
229 Rick Mirer SEA 1995 -3.81076511224469 5
230 Gary Huff CHI 1973 -3.99375948161869 4
231 Marc Wilson NE 1989 -4.49115535199972 7

 

OK so to get past some of the obvious complaints.

Q. ZOMGZ (insert player x here) is way too low!

A. John Elway? Yes way too low I think the 90’s QBs get hurt a lot by playing with Dan Marino but that also in a way validates the score because that shows how dominant Mario was in that era.

A2. You also have to keep in mind that many of the players that are currently playing are going to likely see their number increase over time. Basically the scores are if their career ended at this very instant this is where they would be.

A3. Also keep in mind that the data set only includes stats from 1970 – 2012 so guys like Johnny Unitas likely only played one season.

Q. Why are there so many more below average players than above average ones?
A. Outside of the fact that below average QBs don’t last as long as good ones the really good QBs also bust the curve.

Q. The formatting sucks on that list.
A. Blame google sheets.

Q. But playoffs, super bowls and winz!
A. Playoffs and super bowl victories are not taken into account as they are team stats.

 

Further analysis:

The most average QB? Alex Smith which just seems right.

The biggest problem with this system are as follows.

  • Backups are getting higher scores than expected I think I’m going to have to implement a 2 year minimum starts. – DONE!
  • It is prejudiced against running QBs as their rushing yards and TDs are not currently factored in I’m going to have to check and see if there is an easy way to add these stats to my data.

Broth

James is a draftnic who won't call himself an expert. He has followed the NFL draft since 2004. James believes that history and precedence as well as a keen eye for talent is the real key for predicting and accurately defining what makes good NFL players and where they fit in the NFL. As a college graduate in Bioinformatics he has grown to adapt to reading trends weather it comes in the form of genetic material or NFL prospects he devotes hundreds of hours a year to the craft of studying the NFL draft from all angles to create an unique and in all hopes accurate draft experience to all who would listen.

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